and he's done it before.
In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.
...
In 2001 the Imperial team produced modelling on foot and mouth disease
that suggested that animals in neighbouring farms should be culled, even
if there was no evidence of infection. This influenced government
policy and led to the total culling of more than six million cattle,
sheep and pigs – with a cost to the UK economy estimated at £10 billion.
It
has been claimed by experts such as Michael Thrusfield, professor of
veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, that Ferguson’s
modelling on foot and mouth was ‘severely flawed’ and made a ‘serious
error’ by ‘ignoring the species composition of farms,’ and the fact that
the disease spread faster between different species.
So why the hell is he still in that position, and why is anyone listening to him?
1 comment:
Unfortunately the state is always in CYA mode. They have to bee seen doing something to at least look competent. The fact that they bear no personal cost means that they will choose the most certain, even if most costly and least efficient. The costs ends being borne by the people through higher prices or higher taxes and the leaders hide behind the most pompous and bombastic experts that aren't. The problem is the power to act so arbitrarily without anything but speculation to support the cause of action. much like the AGW debate and the green diktat.
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