Case in point: our current hurricane. Earlier the Weather Nerd had this post on it; just ran across this update on the possible tracks:
On balance, however, the 5pm advisory is arguably bad news. Yes, Irene has weakened, and yes, wind shear may keep her intensity down a bit, at least for a while. But there’s still a good chance she’ll get to major hurricane status as she approaches the coast. And meanwhile, the track forecast just got a little scarier.
Remember what I said about this morning’s “one fairly clear piece of good news,” that the nightmare scenario painted last night by Weather Channel hurricane expert Bryan Norcross — that Irene might start to “recurve” off to sea, but then its recurvature would stall, and it would temporarily shift course back to the “left” (i.e., north or north-northwest), possibly toward New Jersey or New York harbor — no longer appeared to be in play? Well, the NHC just dumped a bucket of cold water on that “good news”:
AFTER [2 TO 3 DAYS]… IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS… INCLUDING THE GFS… ECMWF… HWRF… AND GFDL… SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE… IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE.
A complicated business, of the most vital kind. One of the things I think a lot of the "We should go back to old ways" morons forget is that it wasn't that long ago that a storm like this would hit with, at best, a day or two of warning; and that only if people read the signs correctly.
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