Of course, they wouldn't be there; they plan to send other people to take the risks.
I’ve seen analyses of the long odds the U.S. government would face if it ever attempted to confiscate civilian firearms before. The Mathematics of Countering Tyranny seems like a particularly well done example.
The authors compute that under very generous assumptions there are about 83000 door-knockers available to perform confiscation raids. Dividing that into the estimated number of semiautomatic rifles in the U.S. and assuming that each raid would net three rifles confiscated (which I think is optimistic in the raiders’ favor) each doorknocker would have to execute and survive 864 raids in order for the entire stock of rifles to be seized.
Notice that we’re not even addressing the far larger stock of handguns and other weapons yet. But I’m willing to tilt the conditions of the argument in the confiscators’ favor, because that makes the conclusion more difficult for them to rebut.
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Even this underestimates by an order of magnitude, because paramilitary units become combat ineffective at 10% losses. So it is more like each doorkicker has to get 8k rifles or they will be decimated and combat ineffective before they get them all.
These numbers are only for semi-automatic rifles, correct? When you add in bolt-action rifles, the numbers become even more daunting.
That, and the fact that most good shooters can squeeze off as many AIMED shots with a bolt-action rifle as with a semi-auto, makes the odds much longer against successful confiscation.
There is a huuuuge number of former service members from the last 17 years of conflict, and a very large emphasis has been placed on MOUT and close quarters combat training. Many of those individuals have the ability and willingness to resist an effort to disarm them. Morale can and will evaporate when the first guys in the door get DRT.
Morale can and will evaporate when the first guys in the door get DRT.
I understand MOUT and its value, but there's equal value in working the problem from ~600 meters; doing so will save a lot of wear and tear on doors, not to mention reducing traffic congestion in residential neighborhoods.
Suburbs and dense urban areas are far different than here at home in the boonies out west - most search and seizure ops will run into pissed off dude in home/ suburban neighborhood situations, methinks. Living room distance is it's own monster for everyone involved.
Especially when that homeowner knows where all the funnels are, and knows where your stack is going to be through the wall.
"each doorknocker would have to execute and survive 864 raids"
And that is, of course, assuming we don't decide to go hunting instead of waiting for them to come to us.
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