And from what the gentleman says, probably worse- maybe a LOT worse- than reported.
...As a result, the virus is now poised to break out into three or four new
countries. I'm taking bets that it will do so before long. I know
that area from personal experience. Just look at this map (courtesy of
the Daily Mail)
of where the epidemic has spread, most recently to Goma, a city of at
least one million people (according to informal estimates, double that).
Unless we're very lucky, look for Ebola to reach Burundi next,
and from there, slowly but surely, all the way down the central African
lakes and their connecting rivers to Zambia and Malawi. Look at the
blue areas on the map below. That's how informal, local trade travels,
and (like many others, such as the Black Death in Europe in the 14th century) this disease follows trade. It will not be possible to screen all travelers using such routes.
It's physically impossible to intercept them all - and given their
mistrust of graft-seeking officialdom (of which more below), they'll
have every incentive to avoid checkpoints. They'll simply take to the
bush and walk around them, or sail past them.
And if one infected person gets on an airplane to another country... Chances are against that starting a big outbreak, but anyone really want to take the chance?
And even without airplanes,
"Isolated cases" of Ebola have now been reported from Uganda and Kenya,
with the latter subject to official denials. (If you believe them, I have a bridge in Brooklyn, NYC, to sell you. Cash only, please, and in small bills.) Officials in surrounding countries are terrified
of admitting to Ebola cases on their territory, because they may bring
with them restrictions on travel, trade, and all sorts of things that
may affect their economies - and, consequently, the graft, bribery and
corruption they rely on to fill their wallets. Can't have that
interrupted, can we? This is Africa, after all!
(That's how wealthier refugees from Ebola will evade travel
restrictions, even though they may be carrying the disease. A suitable
bribe, and they'll be waved through. How do I know this? Because I've done it myself to evade travel restrictions, in more than one country in Africa.) That being the case, distrust any and all official statistics coming out of the affected areas.
They may or may not be correct. I'll trust Doctors Without Borders'
figures before I trust those from any health ministry (or the World
One thing that will help here: I really doubt Trump would have any problem ordering "NOBODY from 'x' countries comes in without extensive screening. And if you test positive you're not going home, you're going into a hospital to be watched. With armed guards if necessary."