Thursday, March 26, 2020

Much like I've been thinking

Professor Gupta lead a team of researchers at Oxford University in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

If this is the case, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.

With so many in the U.K. (and potentially the United States) presumably infected, so-called “herd immunity” could kick into effect, dramatically limiting the number of deaths modeled by Ferguson and company.


DaveS said...

Which leads back to the same old problem we've been beating our heads against since this started. We don't have a good, fast, accurate way of testing huge numbers of people - so we have crap for data - so TPTB are just taking big wild ass guesses at what we should do.

Dan said...

I have little doubt that this virus has been making the rounds a lot longer than is officially admitted. I have seen patients with an illness that looks a lot like Influenza since before Christmas who tested NEGATIVE for all testable strains of flu.
And I have spoken to other people who work ER saying the same thing....a nasty illness we couldn't identify has been floating around for months. And we are all reasonably sure it matches COVID 19. The ONLY thing we know for certain is we DO NOT HAVE enough facts and numbers to make ANY accurate statements about this. Personally based on DECADES in belief is the massive over reaction by Gov is going to do far more damage to this country than this virus ever could.

Phssthpok said...

I've been hearing this theory pop up more and more and to be honest, it's got me wondering.

About a month ago, I went a couple of rounds with...something... that started with an irritated throat (due to post nasal drip), and finished with me hacking up the most FASCINATING colors of sputum; but nothing else. No aches, no fever, no fatigue...nothing.

I chalked it up to some unknown allergen and thought nothing of it.