Tuesday, August 23, 2011

I've always, far back as I can remember, been fascinated with weather

And one of the things I learned long ago what that forecasting it is almost as much art as science(still), and that(still) almost anything they tell you more than 48 hours ahead is pretty much guesswork.

Case in point: our current hurricane. Earlier the Weather Nerd had this post on it; just ran across this update on the possible tracks:
On balance, however, the 5pm advisory is arguably bad news. Yes, Irene has weakened, and yes, wind shear may keep her intensity down a bit, at least for a while. But there’s still a good chance she’ll get to major hurricane status as she approaches the coast. And meanwhile, the track forecast just got a little scarier.

Remember what I said about this morning’s “one fairly clear piece of good news,” that the nightmare scenario painted last night by Weather Channel hurricane expert Bryan Norcross — that Irene might start to “recurve” off to sea, but then its recurvature would stall, and it would temporarily shift course back to the “left” (i.e., north or north-northwest), possibly toward New Jersey or New York harbor — no longer appeared to be in play? Well, the NHC just dumped a bucket of cold water on that “good news”:

AFTER [2 TO 3 DAYS]… IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS… INCLUDING THE GFS… ECMWF… HWRF… AND GFDL… SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE… IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE.


A complicated business, of the most vital kind. One of the things I think a lot of the "We should go back to old ways" morons forget is that it wasn't that long ago that a storm like this would hit with, at best, a day or two of warning; and that only if people read the signs correctly.

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