tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515829.post110800407088944089..comments2024-03-28T22:44:04.754-07:00Comments on Irons in the Fire: I'm Anti-Science, he says!Firehandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04562365951182027709noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515829.post-1108357371329431332005-02-13T21:02:00.000-08:002005-02-13T21:02:00.000-08:00My problem is that statements like the one below a...My problem is that statements like the one below are not based on science, or the scientific process:<br /><br /><I>"Pointing out that using modeling to predict what's going to happen in a century is a crock"</I>Of course you can create models, and of course you can test them. As an example, you let someone examine data for some period of time (say 1950 to 1970) and develop a model. You test that model by putting in new data (say 1980 to 1990) to see if it correctly predicts climate.<br /><br />You can see if it does better or worse than other models, you can compare the methods of models, you can even look for "cheats" in models.<br /><br />All that is science.<br /><br />On the other hand, waving hands, and simply declaring that no one can model the future is not science ... you have not tested YOUR hypothesis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515829.post-1108349495957638632005-02-13T18:51:00.000-08:002005-02-13T18:51:00.000-08:00Ok, I'm getting tired of this.
Pointing out that ...Ok, I'm getting tired of this.<br /><br />Pointing out that using modeling to predict what's going to happen in a century is a crock doesn't mean someone doesn't 'believe' in modeling; it means that in this context, the use of it is not exactly a reliable way to plan things.<br /><br />I didn't say that you said "we're all gonna die", I pointed out that lots of people are on the news saying that on a regular basis.<br /><br />By the way, 'denial' generally means deliberately ignoring a problem, which I am not doing. I am disagreeing with some of the stereotypes on the subject that we are bombarded with.Firehandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04562365951182027709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515829.post-1108315972936639132005-02-13T09:32:00.000-08:002005-02-13T09:32:00.000-08:00Well you see, I've recently developed this stereot...Well you see, I've recently developed this stereotype of a typical GW denier, and that's how he works.<br /><br />But let's check back .. you wrote:<br /><br />"When the models cannot reliably predict what's going to happen within 24-48 hours, why in the hell do people believe it when someone says "My computer models predict the earths temperature will rise X degrees in the next century", or whatever the time frame is they're using?"<br /><br />Classic example of the stereotype in action.<br /><br />Now please show where I said "we're all gonna die"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515829.post-1108309246384039622005-02-13T07:40:00.000-08:002005-02-13T07:40:00.000-08:00My, aren't you a prize at misquoting?
I didn't say...My, aren't you a prize at misquoting?<br />I didn't say "there is no global warming".<br />I didn't say I didn't believe in modeling.<br /><br />I don't need to quote people who do believe in man-caused climate-changing "we're all gonna die!" global warming, they're all over the mainstream news, etc.<br /><br />If you're going to call names, you might want to stop misquoting and setting up strawmen to play with.Firehandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04562365951182027709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8515829.post-1108220907077346132005-02-12T07:08:00.000-08:002005-02-12T07:08:00.000-08:00Isn't it kind of oily to take a "there is no globa...Isn't it kind of oily to take a "there is no global warming" position, and then quote Bjorn Lomborg who actually believes there is?<br /><br />I mean, the classic position of denial is to start by saying that you don't believe in modeling, and then saying ok you do (but not these models). Then throw in some things about local weather, chaos, whatever you've got ...<br /><br />Until you finally quote some guys who DO belive in global warming, and shift your focus to why we shouldn't do anything about it.<br /><br />From what I've read, Bjorn doesn't actually say we shouldn't do anything. He just says we shouldn't do the big massive projects (just yet).<br /><br />Bjorn actually talks about a very nice environmental lifestyle. The guy talks proudly of how he doesn't own a car and rides a bicycle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com